Analytics Prove Historical Retirement Withdrawal Rate is Wrong


Four percent and other financial advisor recommendations are unsupported mathematically.

Retirement Withdrawal Rate

Retirement Nest Egg

BOSTON - October 20, 2022 - (

Premium Analysis, Inc. announced the release of a tool to calculate and predict customized withdrawal rates and the likelihood of success during retirement. Historically, financial advisors have proposed a standard 4% rule. But using analytics shows that this is only sometimes true. The Probability Of Success™ is a downloadable Excel spreadsheet that anyone can use. The mathematical model uses sophisticated Monte Carlo methodology and algorithms to provide a percentage and the probability of achieving long-term retirement goals. What is unique is this calculation uses an individual's specific parameters. And everyone is different.

"Conventional wisdom doesn't apply here, and the stakes are too high," says Raymond Gianantoni, founder of Premium Analysis. "For instance, to be conservative in investing, use a common strategy which reduces stock allocation and using 4% for 30 years, with 35% in Stocks and 65% in Bonds. The Probability Of Success would be 80%. The same probability for 6.2% with 63% in Stocks. This example shows that common sense doesn't work, and a tool to understand your risk/reward ratio is necessary."

The free demo will generate the Probability Of Success™ for any withdrawal rate under consideration. The full version allows changes to be made and optimize the asset allocation to improve the Probability of Success. In addition, it's possible to change the probability of success to any desired one. It will calculate the withdrawal rate that meets that criteria. And it will give the likelihood of having 50% or more of the initial investment available at the end of the selected payout period. It is quite possible that, at the longer duration, there will be significant amounts available at good probabilities. The full version is available for a one-time fee of $199.

The downloaded Excel spreadsheet does not require additional software for the Monte Carlo Simulation or optimization.

Probability of Success (TM) Availability and Access: For the free demo edition, send an email to [email protected]; for the full version, send an email to [email protected]. The demo will give the Probability Of Success for the withdrawal rate. The full version offers extensive capabilities, including the impact of changing asset allocations.

About Monte Carlo Simulation Methodology (MCS): An accepted mathematical methodology to create a probability curve. In this instance, the MCS-specific cell values change 225,000 times to generate 2,500 possible iterations of the final values.

Raymond Gianantoni, FLMI: Ray has a career in insurance and estate planning. He witnessed a common frustration that needed fixing: guesswork when making financial decisions. So he took his wisdom and insight to build Premium Analysis, a company specializing in practical tools to predict rarely measurable outcomes.

(C) 2022 All rights reserved. Probability of Success is a trademark of Premium Analysis. Patent pending.

Raymond Gianantoni
Premium Analysis
+1 413-330-6522
email us here
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Contact Information:
Raymond J. Gianantoni
CEO, Founder
[email protected]

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